York Ebor Sectionals Day 3

The following is an analysis of all sectional times from the second day of the 2014 York Ebor festival. Times provided by Turftrax.

The Sky Bet Transfer Fund Stakes

A Class 2 handicap over 12 furlongs, for horses 3 years old and older, with an official handicap mark between 0 and 100.

York Sky Bet Stakes Sectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

              Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1           Glenard    105.959      11      0.848        9.0
2        Salutation    106.257       8      0.847        8.0
3   Dolphin Village    106.043      10      0.851       10.0
4      Pearl Castle    106.641       7      0.842        5.0
5        Stomachion    107.165       3      0.835        2.5
6           Xinbama    108.032       1      0.822        1.0
7            Lahaag    107.211       2      0.835        2.5
8          Chancery    106.949       4      0.841        4.0
9      Wigmore Hall    106.765       6      0.844        6.5
10        Satellite    106.181       9      0.854       11.0
11          Zaidiyn    106.825       5      0.844        6.5
12  Proud Chieftain    105.734      12      0.863       12.0
13 Gabrial The Hero    105.123      13      0.876       13.0
14           Semeen    103.597      14      0.911       14.0
15        Modernism    101.049      15      0.973       15.0
16     Communicator     98.218      16      1.049       16.0

A messy graph with 16 runners to squeeze in. A lot of the higher rankings appear in the top four finishers, which is an interesting change for York. This may indicate that the early pace did not collapse in this race. For that reason, it is worth looking at those horses with the lowest rankings, who finished closest to the front. Xinbama is an obvious one to follow, with the highest Final Percentage figure, well clear of the second ranked Lahaag and third ranked Stomachion. A second viewing of the race could also well reveal why Lahaag's time between the 7f and 6f points was so slow. He must have used a significant amount of energy to regain position.

The Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Lonsdale Cup

A Group 2 race for horses 3 years old and older, over two miles.

York Lonsdale CupSectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

            Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1     Pale Mimosa    105.107       2      0.876        1.5
2        Estimate    105.160       1      0.876        1.5
3        Times Up    104.467       4      0.888        4.0
4      Cavalryman    105.012       3      0.882        3.0
5   Angel Gabrial    104.253       5      0.896        5.0
6 Forgotten Voice    103.966       6      0.902        6.0
7       Certerach    101.782       7      0.954        7.0

This race is a good example of what happens when data goes wrong. For some unknown reason, Turftrax has decided to combine the times for the first four furlongs into a single 12f figure. On Thursday there was no problem breaking out every furlong individually for the 2 mile Fine Equinity Stakes, but not for the long distance race today. This has led to the combined data from the first four furlongs to be discarded, as it badly skewed all numbers and plots. Therefore, what is presented here is not necessarily a true indication of the total percentages and energy distribution for this race.

Using the data that is available, an obvious standout is Cavalryman. This horse made a very strong run at the 3 furlong point, then faded badly as indicated on the plot. Viewing the race shows the horse was checked and unable to continue his run at this point. Forgotten Voice made the majority of the running and slowed towards the end.

The Sky Bet City Of York Stakes

A Listed race for horse 3 years old and older, over 7 furlongs.

York City of York Stakes Sectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

                Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1       Absolutely So     98.309       1      1.049          1
2        Glory awaits     97.152       7      1.074          7
3           Glen Moss     97.607       6      1.067          5
4       Gabriel's Lad     97.929       5      1.060          3
5     Highland Colori     98.279       2      1.053          2
6  That Is the Spirit     96.248      10      1.101         10
7   Alfred Hutchinson     98.013       3      1.066          4
8            Ertijaal     96.538       9      1.099          9
9      Heaven's Guest     97.978       4      1.072          6
10          Cable Bay     97.097       8      1.095          8
11           Rerouted     95.763      12      1.130         12
12           Penitent     95.803      11      1.129         11
13             Mushir     94.702      13      1.167         13

Besides the winner, Absolutely So, a standout is Glory Awaits with high rankings and a good second place finish in a race which appears to have solid early pace. Final percentages lower than 100% and energy distributions greater than 1 should have seen a number of lower ranked horses finish better. When those with high rankings like Glory Awaits and Glen Moss hold one for solid finishes, this should indicate a good effort and a horse worth following.

The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes

A Group 1 race for horses 2 years old and older, over 5 furlongs.

York Nunthorpe Stakes Sectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

             Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1       Sole Power    100.468       1      0.985          1
2    Stepper Point     98.239       9      1.030          6
3     Extortionist    100.424       2      0.987          2
4         Moviesta     98.617       7      1.024          5
5       Hot Streak     98.376       8      1.043          8
6          G Force    100.310       4      1.004          3
7          Rangali     99.276       5      1.034          7
8       Take Cover     97.899      11      1.067         10
9  Cougar Mountain    100.345       3      1.017          4
10         Astaire     97.124      13      1.090         13
11    Monsieur Joe     99.264       6      1.045          9
12       Shea Shea     97.997      10      1.072         11
13           Steps     97.886      12      1.086         12

Sole Power was a good winner, under a skillful (some may say lucky) hold up ride by Richard Hughes. Stepper Point did well to finish second, after burning more energy early in the race than late. Both Extortionist and Moviesta were listed previously as sectional standout horses to follow. Their perfromances were not poor, especially as Moviesta did suffer some interferance at the start of the race. This incident may be reflected in his low final percentage figure.

*The Sky Bet Are You In? Convivial Maiden Stakes *

A Class 2 race for 2 year-old horses, over 7 furlongs.

York Convivial Maiden Stakes Sectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

              Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1        White Lake    102.262       1      0.940          1
2      Secret Brief    100.825       3      0.976          2
3  Foreign Diplomat    100.017       6      0.993          5
4      Bright Flash    100.029       5      0.995          6
5       Dissolution    101.030       2      0.979          3
6       Mount Tahan     98.996       9      1.020          8
7      Erik The Red    100.618       4      0.989          4
8    All About Time     99.145       8      1.024          9
9         Muffarreh     99.885       7      1.010          7
10           Brando     97.496      15      1.063         14
11          Acaster     97.725      14      1.059         13
12             Swot     98.250      12      1.051         12
13            Beach     98.612      11      1.046         10
14      Able Spirit     96.675      16      1.090         16
15      Golden Spun     98.734      10      1.047         11
16    Bionic Indian     97.946      13      1.072         15

White Lake was a surprising winner, according to Starting Price, but perhaps not according to either final percentage or energy distribution figures. This horse's sectional graph is really outstanding. A 2015 antepost 2000 Guineas bet has already been struck on this horse. Dissolution may be one worth following, ranking second in final percentages, but with caution as his figure is more than 1.2% behind the winner's. Foreign Diplomat appears to have matched the winner between 4f and 3f, then tried to sustain a longer run, but faltered in the last furlong. A slightly easier race, without the quick fractions set by White Lake, may suit him better.

The Nationwide Accident Repair Services Stakes

An 8 furlong, Class 2 handicap, the 3 year-olds, with an official handicap between 0 and 100.

York Nationwide Accident Repair Services Stakes Sectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

                Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1    Master The World    106.513       1      0.847        1.0
2           Extremity    104.815       4      0.878        3.0
3            Almuheet    104.789       5      0.882        5.0
4  Perfect Persuasion    105.828       2      0.866        2.0
5            Munaaser    105.042       3      0.879        4.0
6            Pit Stop    104.575       6      0.888        6.0
7            Regiment    103.266      10      0.915       10.0
8            Halation    103.678       8      0.909        7.5
9           Moohaarib    103.484       9      0.913        9.0
10           Lockhart    103.058      11      0.922       11.0
11        God Willing    103.845       7      0.909        7.5
12              Lesha    102.609      12      0.934       12.0
13   Sir Guy Porteous     97.857      14      1.056       14.0
14   Tiger Twenty Two     98.362      13      1.049       13.0

Besides the winner, who clearly posted the best final furlong as indicated on the graph, the horse to follow from this race may well be Perfect Persuasion. He seemed to start a run with Leesha at the 4 furlong point, before easing slightly and then quickening again with 2 furlongs remaining. Leesha's run faltered badly in the final furlong, but with some more maturity and development, perhaps one to keep an eye on in future races.

The complete updated code to replicate the graphs and tables in this article is available on GitHub.