York Ebor Sectionals Day 1

The first day of York's 2014 Ebor Festival and five races are available for sectional analysis. Despite TurfTrax's previous assurances that all races would be covered and uploaded, Race 5 has not appeared on their website at the time of writing. (Edit: Race 5 now available from Turftrax and added below)

The Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap)

A Class 2 race for 3 year-olds with an official rating between 0 and 105 over 5 furlongs.

York Symphony Group Stakes Sectionals Plot

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             Horse   FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1          Blaine    106.655       1      0.810        1.0
2    Move In Time    105.241       6      0.838        4.0
3     B Fifty Two    104.179       9      0.856        8.0
4       Robot Boy    104.987       7      0.844        5.5
5      Ashpan Sam    105.833       4      0.835        2.5
6          Bogart    103.250      12      0.879        9.0
7  Line of Reason    106.089       2      0.835        2.5
8  Secret Witness    105.917       3      0.844        5.5
9            Mass    105.403       5      0.854        7.0
10    See The Sun    104.303       8      0.880       10.0
11     York Glory    103.408      10      0.897       11.0
12           Racy    103.269      11      0.900       12.0
13       Peterkin    100.477      15      0.969       14.0
14     Kimberella    101.692      13      0.952       13.0
15   Judge N Jury    101.204      14      0.970       15.0

Blaine's figures are very good. The graph clearly shows how strong his final furlong was and he has the highest Final Percentage by almost a full 1.5 points. At an SP of 12/1 today, Blaine's price next time out is likely to be considerably shorter, but still one worth following. Line of Reason shows the second highest ranking for Final Percentage and Energy Distribution, yet managed to finish only seventh. This is a horse most likely capable of an improved finishing position next start. Ashpan Sam, to a lesser degree than Line of Reason, also appears to have outrun his finishing position based on sectional figures.

The Tattersalls Acomb Stakes

A Group 3 race for 2 year-olds over 7 furlongs.

York Tattersalls Acomb Stakes Sectionals Plot

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              Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1  Dutch Connection     98.990       1      1.029          1
2  Toocoolforschool     97.669       2      1.069          2
3          Basateen     97.096       3      1.087          3
4           Jamaica     96.771       4      1.097          4
5          Salateen     96.122       7      1.112          6
6          Dominada     96.726       5      1.103          5
7             Growl     96.272       6      1.115          7
8            Chadic     93.595       8      1.207          8
9    Danny O'ruairc     92.286       9      1.257          9
10   Prince Gagarin     86.573      10      1.517         10

The numbers for this race demonstrate a much stronger early pace, which fell away markedly in the later stages. No horse posted a Final Percentage figure greater than 100%, nor an Energy Distribution figure less than 1.0. This means the entire field ran faster in the early stages, as a percentage of total time, and used the majority of their energy doing so. Dutch Connection obviously handled the strong pace better than the rest of the field, which is born out by the figures. The only other horses perhaps worth noting from this race are Salateen and Dominada, who appear to have outrun their finishing position by the numbers.

The Neptune Great Voltigeur Stakes

A Group 2 race for 3 year-old colts and geldings over 12 furlongs.

York Great Voltigeur Stakes Sectionals Plot

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               Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1          Postponed    101.973       1      0.949          1
2           Snow Sky    101.764       2      0.955          2
3              Odeon     97.674       4      1.059          4
4           Marzocco     98.495       3      1.047          3
5 Granddukeoftuscany     97.617       5      1.067          5
6           Hartnell     96.525       8      1.095          8
7      Observational     96.873       7      1.089          7
8        Red Galileo     97.038       6      1.088          6
9    Indian Maharaja     90.380       9      1.316          9

A messy graph in what was probably a very uneven pace. Postponed, the eventual winner, shows a nice burst of speed three furlongs from the end, to beat Snow Sky who had been putting in a longer and more sustained run for a furlong further. These two are the only horses finishing quicker than their early pace. Red Galileo is marginally interesting, but hardly one to follow.

The Juddmonte International Stakes

A Group 1 for horses 3 years-old and older, over 10 furlongs.

York Juddmonte International Stakes Sectionals Plot

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            Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1       Australia    110.164       1      0.762          1
2 The Grey Gatsby    109.185       2      0.781          2
3       Telescope    107.880       3      0.808          3
4       Mukhadram    106.298       5      0.841          5
5            Arod    106.387       4      0.840          4
6      Kingfisher    104.862       6      0.874          6

A race with a steady, but fairly even pace, which is really all about Australia. The winner's Final Percentage and Energy Distribution clearly shine above the others, although The Grey Gatsby put in a very credible performance. It's almost a shame for a horse like The Grey Gatsby to come up against a talent like Australia. The remainder of the field's numbers are some way behind the first two. Mukhadram didn't settle early and this may go some way to explaining his lacklustre performance. However, Telescope had every chance but just wasn't good enough.

The Fine Equinity Stakes

A 16 furlong, Class 2 handicap for horses aged 4 and older, with an official rating between 0 and 100.

York Fine Equinity Stakes Sectionals Plot

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                Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1      Edge of Sanity    114.059       1      0.727        1.0
2      Quest for More    113.945       2      0.728        2.0
3        Spacious Sky    113.668       3      0.733        3.0
4           Statutory    112.800       5      0.746        5.0
5    Sir Frank Morgan    112.056      11      0.756       11.0
6              Gambol    112.600       9      0.749        8.0
7          Eagle Rock    111.698      13      0.761       12.0
8              Itlaaq    112.773       7      0.747        6.5
9        Lady Kashaan    112.789       6      0.747        6.5
10          Saptapadi    112.952       4      0.745        4.0
11        Big Thunder    112.615       8      0.751        9.0
12           Totalize    112.416      10      0.753       10.0
13  Number One London    109.166      16      0.800       16.0
14 Streets Of Newyork    112.048      12      0.762       13.0
15  Knightly Escapade    110.803      14      0.781       14.0
16             Bantam    110.090      15      0.794       15.0

The plot is quite crowded, with sixteen runners over sixteen furlongs. Viewing the table above indicates a very slowly early pace, with all bar one horse's Final Percentages above 110%. To some extend this can be expected from a 2 mile event, however in this case the numbers appear to be quite high regardless. Compare this to the 12 furlong Voltigeur Stakes from earlier in the day. Saptapadi is interesting, with high rankings but a low finishing position. Perhaps this is indicative of an unclear run.

The StanJames.com Stakes

A Class 2 Nursery Handicap for 2 year-olds over 6 furlongs.

York StanJames.com Stakes Sectionals Plot

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                Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1        Felix Leiter     96.302     4.0      1.107          1
2              Kibaar     96.408     2.5      1.117          3
3      Geordie George     96.162     5.0      1.123          5
4             Roossey     96.408     2.5      1.118          4
5         Burnt Sugar     95.721     6.0      1.136          6
6       Majestic Hero     93.791    12.0      1.189         11
7         Dark Profit     95.060     9.0      1.159          8
8         Kingsbridge     97.422     1.0      1.109          2
9             Uptight     95.153     8.0      1.164          9
10 Thecornishassassin     94.741    10.0      1.179         10
11         Burtonwood     95.654     7.0      1.158          7
12          Mignolino     94.645    11.0      1.194         12
13      Denzille Lane     92.827    13.0      1.256         13
14       Polarisation     91.238    14.0      1.326         14

A race full of interesting figures, but what to make of it? Again the early pace was strong, as shown through lower Final Percentages and Energy Distributions all above 1.0. Kingsbridge is an enigma. If the strong early pace collapsed, as evidenced by the last three finishers, why does a horse with such high rankings only cross the line eighth? Further viewing of the race is required to determine if Kingsbridge suffered problems in running, preventing a higher placed finish. Majestic Hero probably did quite well to finish sixth with such low rankings in both columns.

This is a race where viewing the early sectionals, just the first two furlongs, in isolation may provide additional insight.

Early Sectional Percentages

                Horse EarlyPercent
14       Polarisation    101.25119
13      Denzille Lane    100.90759
6       Majestic Hero     99.77750
9             Uptight     99.33637
12          Mignolino     99.07028
10 Thecornishassassin     98.84488
11         Burtonwood     98.27939
5         Burnt Sugar     98.04163
3      Geordie George     97.95552
4             Roossey     97.79978
7         Dark Profit     97.77959
1        Felix Leiter     97.77778
8         Kingsbridge     97.58119
2              Kibaar     97.36191

This confirms the strength of the run by Majestic Hero. He has the third highest early percentage, while the two above him finished last and second last. Mignolino probably just ran poorly, while Uptight has a pace profile similar to Majestic Hero, although not as strong.