Goodwood Sectionals Aug 1st

TurfTrax have been good enough to upload just three sets of sectional data from today's meeting at Goodwood.

The following analysis will use the recently developed Energy Distribution figure, in conjunction with line plots of sectional times and a calculation of Final Percentages.

The Coutts Glorious Stakes (Group 3)

A 12 furlong race for 4 year olds and upwards.

Glorious Stakes, August 1st, Sectionals Graph

(Right click, View Image for a larger version)

Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

              Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1      Pethers Moon    105.612       1      0.866          1
2             Encke    104.421       4      0.887          4
3      Cafe Society    105.133       3      0.876          2
4     Aussie Reigns    105.281       2      0.877          3
5   Quest For Peace    104.320       5      0.894          5
6         Songcraft    102.396       6      0.939          6
7 Battle Of Marengo     97.791       7      1.062          7

Pether's Moon tops the rankings for both figures, and visually it was a strong performance to hold on for the win. Encke's numbers are interesting, given a second place finish, but there will be no secrets backing this one next time out. Aussie Reigns, finishing only fourth, but with the second highest final percentage and ranked third in energy distribution could be one to watch for the future. The graph also shows a nice burst two furlongs from the finish for this horse.

The Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3)

An 8 furlong race for 3 year olds.

Bonhams Stakes, Goodwood August 1st Sectionals Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

           Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1  Wannabe Yours    100.188       1      0.995          1
2 Hors De Combat     99.277       2      1.020          2
3      Bow Creek     98.503       3      1.041          3
4       Windfast     96.960       4      1.086          4
5 Shifting Power     92.647       5      1.229          5
6  Rapprochement     84.834       6      1.571          6

What does the graph and these numbers tell us? The only other 1 mile race for which we have published sectionals this week is Kingman's win in the Sussex Stakes. Comparing the two graphs, even without having watched them both, it is clear that the early pace in this race was stronger. In the Sussex Stakes, sectional times did not dip below 12 seconds until after 3 furlongs from the end, at which point there was a strong burst of acceleration. The graph for today's race shows reasonably quick early furlongs, a slight rise as the hill at Goodwood is negotiated, below 12 seconds again with 3 furlongs remaining and then a sharp drop off in speed.

The Energy Distribution numbers also tell the same story. Here are the numbers from Kingman's race:

     Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1  Kingman    122.590       1      0.591          1
2 Toronado    120.380       3      0.618          3
3   Darwin    120.644       2      0.616          2
4 Outstrip    120.167       4      0.621          4

Those low Energy Distribution numbers clearly indicate a much slower early part of the race.

In today's Bonham Stakes only one horse posted an Energy Distribution number less than 1.00, the winner Wannabe Yours.

The graph shows Hors de Combat making a move at around 3 furlongs before the finish, but was unable to sustain the pace in the face of an even faster finishing Wannabe Yours. The early leader, Rapprochement, is tailed off a long way last.

The L'ormarins Queens Plate Stakes (Group 3)

A 7 furlong race for fillies and mares, 3 years old and older.

Queens Plat Stakes, Goodwood August 1st, Sectional Graph

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Final Percentages and Energy Distribution

               Horse FinPercent FinRank EnergyDist EnergyRank
1           J Wonder    105.978       1      0.852          1
2            Muteela    103.526       5      0.903          5
3          Indignant    103.994       4      0.896          2
4            Valonia    103.405       6      0.907          6
5          This Time    104.148       3      0.897          4
6      Queen Catrine    104.263       2      0.896          3
7           Wee Jean    103.327       7      0.913          7
8 The Gold Cheongsam    102.670       8      0.929          8
9          Manderley     92.823       9      1.236          9

The winner, J Wonder, is the obvious stand out on both the graph and the numbers. She really did come late and just beat Muteela at the line. Perhaps Muteela's numbers and ranking are indicative of a style that doesn't work particularly well at Goodwood. The horse I will be following out of this race is Queen Catrine. She finished well down the order but posted a good Final Percentage and is ranked well on both sets of figures. One can tell from the graph that she quickened her pace earlier than J Wonder, but could not sustain it for quite as long.

The complete updated code to replicate the graphs and tables in this article is available on GitHub.